000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081334 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED OCT 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

CORRECTED TO REMOVE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                    
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 07N ALONG 90W AND HAS BEEN  
PROGRESSING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OFF THE COAST 
OF EL SALVADOR. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS ALSO PART OF A 
LONGER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE 
ORIGINATED OVER LAND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MIGRATED OVER 
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO LOSE ITS 
DISTINCTION AS IT SLOWS DOWN IN ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT...AND 
STARTS TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRES 
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N90W TO 10N130W TO 
LOW PRES 1010 NEAR 13.5N136.5W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 120 NM AXIS BETWEEN 109W 
AND 115W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1004 MB AREA OF LOW PRES...THE POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF 
SIMON...IS CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 115.5W OR ABOUT 45 NM NW OF PUNTA 
EUGENIA ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAK THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES NE 
ACROSS BAHIA SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH 
THIS LOW. WINDS MAY BE STILL BE REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 KT ON THE 
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING TO BARELY 20 KT 
IN OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS ARE LIKELY STILL TO 9 FT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW 
PRES IN AREAS THAT ARE NOT FETCH LIMITED...BUT WILL BE SUBSIDING 
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND THE LOW 
PRES MOVES INLAND.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 
13.5N136.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 
150 NM TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW HAS BEEN A 
PERSISTENT FEATURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA FOR THE 
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. 
EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT 
WITHIN 90 NM ON THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. 

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 04 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS 
INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...DUE LARGELY TO LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS 
INITIATED BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANT LOW OF 
SIMON AND HIGHER PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. SEAS ARE LIKELY 
BELOW 8 FT...AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW 
PRES SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

WITH PASSAGE OF THE LATEST OF A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA...PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVECTION 
THAT IS ENHANCED BY SW SHEAR ALOFT HAS ESTABLISHED THE PRE 
CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A BROAD CYCLONIC AREA ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM PANAMA TO ABOUT 100W. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BROAD AREA OF 
CYCLONIC TURNING FROM MID WEEK ONWARDS...WITH ONE OR MORE 
SMALLER LOW PRES AREAS EMBEDDED ON EITHER OR BOTH SIDE OF THE 
ISTHMUS. THE GFS MAY BE OVER DOING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW 
PRES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE 
ECMWF AND UKMET THAT HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEPICTED WEAKER LOW PRES 
CURRENTLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF COSTA RICA LATER TODAY AND DRIFTING NW ALONG THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA LATER IN THE WEEK. EXPECT MODEST WINDS AND SEAS 
INITIALLY NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRES...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 20 
TO 25 KT OFF NICARAGUA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT LATER THIS WEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 04 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A 
SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN 
DIMINISH. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS CAN BE 
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BRIEFLY. ANOTHER 
ROUND IS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS WELL. THE 
OVERNIGHT PULSES ARE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A TIGHTER PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING LOCAL DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT 
FLOW.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN