000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 116.7W AT 07/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 87 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING N-NE OR 025 DEG 
AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SHEARED WELL TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF 
SIMON WITHIN 90 NM ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 28N 
AND 29N. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ALSO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TODAY. IN 
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 8N ALONG 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N E OF 83W TO 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 7N97W 10N111W 
8N126W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N134W. ITCZ BEGINS JUST W OF THE 
LOW NEAR 13N135W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-
98W...FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 104W-111W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 118W-122W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BEING APPLIED TO THE WEAKENING 
OF T.S. SIMON AND IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
ALONG 127W N OF 25N AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 20N110W. 

SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
INDICATED A PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING N OF 20N W OF 125W 
AND IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF SIMON FARTHER SOUTH. A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED AS A 
1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N134W. WITH REGARD TO SEAS... 
PREVIOUS ALTIMETER PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE 
WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT W OF 125W. 

ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF 
COSTA RICA STARTING MID WEEK. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH BUILDING 
HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENHANCE 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AND ALLOW 20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING LATE WED NIGHT.

$$ 
PAW