000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 116.9W AT 07/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 105 NM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG 
AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 115W AND 
116W...SHEARED TO WELL TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF SIMON. LARGE 
SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND 
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... AND 
ALSO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION... HEAVY 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 05N ALONG 82W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 82W. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER 
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS WITH FRESH SW 
FLOW S OF 07N E OF 90W AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N93W TO 08N125W 
TO  1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEING APPLIED TO THE WEAKENING OF 
T.S. SIMON IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W 
N OF 25N AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N110W. 

SUCCESSIVE ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
INDICATED PERSISTENT THAT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING N OF 20N W OF 
125W IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF SIMON FARTHER SOUTH...THE WEAK 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED 
AS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N134W ALSO DEPICTED 15 KT WINDS 
WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. WITH REGARD TO 
SEAS...PREVIOUS ALTIMETER PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT W OF 125W. 

ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF 
COSTA RICA STARTING MID WEEK. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH BUILDING 
HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENHANCE 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AND ALLOW 20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING WED NIGHT.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN