000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE OCT 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 117.2W AT 07/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 135 NM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG 
AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF 
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... 
AND ALSO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION... 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
AND PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 04N ALONG 81W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 
87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N93W TO 09N107W 
TO 08N124W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W TO 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W... 
AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 129W...AND FROM 
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 133W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING N OF 20N W OF 125W IS 
MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OUTSIDE OF 
THE INFLUENCE OF SIMON. AN EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT PASS AROUND 
06/1436 UTC AND RELATIVELY RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND 06/1718 
UTC AND 06/1858 UTC INDICATED THESE TRADES. FARTHER SOUTH...THE 
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N134W ALSO DEPICTED 15 
KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT. WITH REGARDS 
TO SEAS...SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT W OF 
125W. 

THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEING APPLIED TO THE WEAKENING OF 
T.S. SIMON IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 
34N130W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF 
MEXICO AT 20N109W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 
105W AND 130W.

LASTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE 
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SW WINDS E OF 
90W INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

$$
HUFFMAN