000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062053
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON OCT 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 117.4W AT 06/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 175 NM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING N OR 010 DEG 
AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 27N118W. LARGE SWELLS 
GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ALSO 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND 
PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 05N ALONG 79W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 
86W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 07N93W TO 10N105W 
TO 10N125W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 13N134W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS N OF 04N E OF 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING N OF 20N W OF 125W IS 
MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OUTSIDE OF 
THE INFLUENCE OF SIMON. AN EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT PASS AROUND 
06/1436 UTC AND A RELATIVELY RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1718 
UTC INDICATED THESE TRADES. ALSO...SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING 
GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT W OF 125W. 

THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEING APPLIED TO THE WEAKENING OF 
T.S. SIMON IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 
33N131W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF 
MEXICO AT 20N108W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 
110W AND 130W. 

LASTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE 
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SW WINDS E OF 
90W INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED CONVECTION.

$$
HUFFMAN