000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061524 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 25.1N 117.4W AT 06/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 204 NM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING N OR 010 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 120 NM AND 240 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ALSO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 07N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N109W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N134W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 85W. ...DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING N OF 20N W OF 125W IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF SIMON ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED AN EXCEPTION WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN 180 NM N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N134W. ALSO...SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT W OF 125W. THE STRONG SW SHEAR BEING APPLIED TO THE WEAKENING T.S. SIMON IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 32N132W AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AT 20N106W. NORTHERLY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...ALLOWING THE WAVE TO LOSE DEFINITION. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE IS ENHANCING VERY MODEST AND SPORADIC CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SW FLOW E OF 90W INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. GAP WINDS ARE PULSING TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. $$ LEWITSKY