000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON OCT 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 117.6W AT 06/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 245 NM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING N OR 360 DEG 
AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. STRONG SW 
SHEAR IS KEEPING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONFINED TO 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NE QUADRANT. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY 
SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS 
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W MOVING W AT 
15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N85W TO 10N105W 
TO 10N120W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N133W TO BEYOND 13N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH AXIS E OF 85W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 
105W AND 120W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 
13N133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
PERSISTENT WEAK RIDGING N OF 20N W OF 125W IS MAINTAINING 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED AN 
EXCEPTION ARE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE 
NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N133W. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES 
INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS REMAINING GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT W OF 125W. 

THE STRONG SW SHEAR BEING APPLIED TO THE WEAKENING T.S. SIMON IS 
SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 30N130W AND AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N105W. 
NORTHERLY SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE 
BETWEEN 90W AND 92W...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO LOSE 
DEFINITION. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER 
CYCLONE IS ENHANCING MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. 

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
SW FLOW E OF 90W INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED 
CONVECTION. 

GAP WINDS ARE PULSING TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS 
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 
INCREASE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN