000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060251
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON OCT 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 117.6W AT 06/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 270 NM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO AND ABOUT 425 NM W 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 
6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 113W 
AND 119W. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 11N ALONG 91W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS 
TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N86W TO 11N109W 
TO 10N123W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N134W TO 13N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 
88W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N135W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS S-SE FROM THE HIGH INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N131W TO 
24N127W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH 
SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W OF 125W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF 
TROPICAL STORM SIMON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A FRESH PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 
TUESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
HUFFMAN