000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052109
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE SIMON CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 117.5W AT 05/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 295 NM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO AND ABOUT 420 NM W OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 8 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 114W 
AND 119W. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 09N ALONG 88W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT 
THIS TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 
10N113W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N121W TO 11N126W TO 13N130W TO 
13N137W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N137W TO 13N140W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 75W AND 
87W...FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N135W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N130W TO 
26N126W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH 
SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W OF 125W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF 
HURRICANE SIMON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A FRESH PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 
TUESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
HUFFMAN