000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051458
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE SIMON CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 117.1W AT 05/1500 UTC OR 
ABOUT 313 NM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO AND 400 NM W OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 9 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 150 NM 
IN THE N QUADRANT. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 08N ALONG 87W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN ACCOMPANYING 
THE WAVE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N95W THEN    
RESUMES FROM 13N123W TO 12N140W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT E OF 140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF A LINE  
FROM 05N78W TO 07N85W...AND ALSO FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 133W 
AND 136W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 15N95W TO 13N98W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N137W. A 
RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH INTO THE AREA NEAR 27N130W. THE 
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON   
TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 
5-7 FT RANGE W OF 120W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE 
SIMON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PERSIST DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF     
OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT HAD ENHANCED 
NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER 
THIS MORNING. THAT FRONT HAS SINCE STALLED AND WILL SHORTLY 
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL CHANGE 
THE WIND AND PRESSURE REGIME ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS 
DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
A FRESH PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 
TUE WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF CENTRAL AMERICAN IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
LEWITSKY