000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050902
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE SIMON WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 116.7W AT 05/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 380 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 
350 NM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 953 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 
NM OF IN THE N SEMICIRCLE FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY 
SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS 
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W THROUGH EL 
SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS MOVING W AT 15 KT. AN ASSOCIATED 
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED NEAR 12.5N90W. CLOUD DRIFT WINDS 
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE 
AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N105W THEN IS 
DISCONTINUOUS TO 12N117W WHERE IT RESUMES AND EXTENDS W TO LOW 
PRES 12N131W 1009 MB THEN BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN95W 
AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W THAT 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 25N130W. THE WEAK 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT 
RANGE W OF 120W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE SIMON. 
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PERSIST DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS 
ENHANCING NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 
8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON.

A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 25 KT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN