000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE SIMON WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 115.9W AT 05/0300 UTC OR 
ABOUT 340 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
ABOUT 385 NM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW OR 315 DEGREES 
AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 946 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 
24N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N90W TO 16N86W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ON THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N93W. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO 
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS OFF THE COAST OF NW 
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N88W. MOST SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF 
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA THIS EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N89W TO 08N110W THEN 
RESUMES FROM 14N116W TO 12N122W TO 14N130W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 13N132W TO 12N137W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N137W TO 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 114WW...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND 
135W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 
80W AND 83W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W THAT 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N126W TO NEAR 
25N122W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH 
SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE W OF 120W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF 
HURRICANE SIMON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPT OF THE FAR 
EASTERN PORTION IN THE VICINITY OF 120W AS SWELL FROM SIMON 
SEEPS WEST AND BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF 7-8 FT E OF 127W BY 
LATE SUNDAY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL 
ENHANCE NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT AND 
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH AND 
SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 25 KT.

$$
HUFFMAN