000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE SIMON WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 115.0W AT 04/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 315 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
ABOUT 430 NM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES 
AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 
24N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N79W TO 08N80W TO 09N87W TO 07N110W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 14N116W TO 12N121W TO 14N129W TO 12N133W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N133W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W...WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N90W TO 11N97W...FROM 05N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W... 
AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N137W THAT 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N128W TO NEAR 
26N123W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH 
SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE W OF 120W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF 
HURRICANE SIMON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPT OF THE FAR 
EASTERN PORTION IN THE VICINITY OF 120W AS SWELL FROM SIMON 
BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF 7-8 FT E OF 127W BY LATE SUNDAY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL 
ENHANCE NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT AND 
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH AND 
SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 25 KT.

$$
HUFFMAN