000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
AT 04/1500 UTC HURRICANE SIMON WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 113.8W 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT. SIMON HAS INTENSIFIED 
RAPIDLY...AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 966 MB WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 75 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. SWELLS GENERATED BY 
SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS 
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N100W TOP 11N108W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 13N116W TO 12N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 
130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N AND 
60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 133W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N136W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N126W TO NEAR 22N120W. 
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 
6-7 FT RANGE W OF 120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL 
ENHANCE NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT AND 
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH AND 
SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 25 KT.

$$
AL