000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 112.7W AT 04/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 105 NM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND AND ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 45 
NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON MAY IMPACT THE 
COAST CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS 
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ TERMINATING 14N102W. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
RESUMES AT 13N116W AND EXTENDS TO 13N130W THEN TO BEYOND 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N135W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N128W EXTENDING TO NEAR 
24N125W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH 
SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE W OF 120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.  
THIS WILL ENHANCE NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH 
AND SUBSIDE BY LATE SUNDAY.

A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 25 KT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN