000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 111.6W AT 04/0300 UTC OR 
ABOUT 45 NM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND AND ABOUT 245 NM SSW OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 
23N BETWEEN 107W TO 115W. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS 
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. 
IN ADDITION...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST 
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N89W THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 13N116W TO 12N130W TO 11N136W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
11N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
11N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 
107W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N138W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N128W EXTENDING TO NEAR 
22N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 
6-7 FT RANGE W OF 120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE 
SATURDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE NOCTURNAL GAP WIND 
FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY 
SUNDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. 
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE BY LATE SUNDAY.

A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 25 KT.

$$
HUFFMAN