000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032121 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 110.6W AT 03/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 20 NM E OF SOCORRO ISLAND AND ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 105W TO 114W. SIMON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS WHILE MOVING TO THE WNW. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. IN ADDITION...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N91W THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N116W TO 12N123W TO 12N129W TO 10N136W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF A LINE FROM 10N86W TO 05N80W...AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 119W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N127W EXTENDING TO NEAR 26N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE W OF 120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...DUE IN PART TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND REORGANIZE FARTHER NORTH...ALLOWING THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ENHANCE NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. $$ HUFFMAN