000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 109.8W AT 03/1500 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 50 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM SW AND 30 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. SIMON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY 
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING TO THE 
WNW. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SW MEXICO MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES WHILE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST 
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N95W THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 14N116W TO 10N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
122W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N136W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N126W EXTENDING TO NEAR 
23N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 
6-7 FT RANGE W OF 120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...DUE IN PART TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND REORGANIZE FARTHER 
NORTH TODAY...ALLOWING THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. 

LOOKING AHEAD IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE SAT. 
THIS SETUP WILL ENHANCE NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH WINDS REACHING 25 KT 
AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. 

A WEAKER PULSE OF GAP WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUN 
MORNING...BUT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PULSE ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE WEAKER THAN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW 25 KT.

$$
AL