000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 108.9W AT 03/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 280 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM W QUADRANT. SIMON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN REACHING HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING TO THE WNW. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SW MEXICO MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WHILE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 09N102W THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N116W TO 12N120W TO 10N138W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND REACHES TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND BETWEEN 98W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 17 UTC ALONG WITH WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO...SQUEEZED BETWEEN T.S. SIMON FARTHER WEST AND THE TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH S OF CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SIMON CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM COASTLINE. THE NEAR TERM FORECAST FOR SIMON IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE NW MAKING A CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE CABO AREA LATE TODAY. PERIPHERAL SHORT PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM SIMON WILL ALLOW 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS FAR WEST AS 120W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 04 UTC INDICATED SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF SIMON WAS ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KT...LIGHTER THAN HAD BEEN NOTED EARLIER. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...APPLYING WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR TO SIMON THIS MORNING. NE FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO SHEARING ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE WEAK SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF SIMON W OF 100W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 04 UTC ALSO INDICATED 7 TO 9 FT SEAS S OF 10N ALONG 110W...AN INDICATION THAT MIXED SW AND NW SWELL ARE STILL HAVING AN IMPACT...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MWW3 INITIALIZATIONS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TODAY. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 04 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH NW FLOW BETWEEN 25N AND 28N...DUE IN PART TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL WEAKEN AND REORGANIZE FARTHER NORTH...ALLOWING THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE SAT. THIS WILL ENHANCE OVERNIGHT GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT. THE GAP PULSE MAY REACH 25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING...NOT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT. SIMILARLY A WEAKER PULSE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUN MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. WEST OF 120W...WEAK RIDGING CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS...WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS LIMITING MODEST CONVECTION TO A WEAK A ITCZ OR MONSOON TROUGH. $$ CHRISTENSEN