000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030243 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 108.5W AT 03/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 225 NM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO AND ABOUT 305 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W...AND FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SIMON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN REACHING HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING TO THE WNW. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SW MEXICO MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WHILE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 12N89W THEN RESUMES NEAR 14N113W TO 11N120W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W. ...DISCUSSION... FRESH S TO SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON ARE COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL... AS WELL AS NW SWELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ROUGHLY WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16N109W TO 16N105W TO 09N105W TO 09N117W TO 12N117W TO 16N109W. AS SIMON CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WNW...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SWELL GENERATED SEAS WILL SHIFT N-NE INTO THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SIMON AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SWELL GENERATED SEAS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WITH THE BASE MOVING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N105W NW TO BEYOND 32N117W. RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN 6 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 26N AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO AS WELL AS JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX BY FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. $$ HUFFMAN