000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 108.0W AT 02/2100 
UTC OR ABOUT 210 NM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 295 NM SSE 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 8 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 
99W AND 104W. SIMON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN REACHING 
HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING TO THE WNW. HEAVY 
RAINFALL OVER SW MEXICO MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES 
WHILE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST CAUSING 
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N87W TO 12N89W THEN    
RESUMES NEAR 14N113W TO 11N120W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 88W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 
98W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
FRESH S TO SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON ARE 
COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL... 
AS WELL AS NW SWELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE A LARGE 
AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ROUGHLY WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE 
FROM 15N104W TO 08N104W TO 09N118W TO 10N118S TO 15N107W TO 
15N104W. AS SIMON CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WNW...THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF SWELL GENERATED SEAS WILL SHIFT N-NE INTO 
THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM SIMON AND THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OS SWELL GENERATED SEAS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL 
COVERAGE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WITH THE 
BASE MOVING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST...AN 
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WEST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 23N106W NW TO BEYOND 32N120W. RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL 
FROM STRONG WINDS W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING 8 TO 9 
FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W. THESE 
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN 12 HOURS AS THE 
SUPPORTING WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF 
26N BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS WHILE TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO AS WELL AS 
JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY FRI NIGHT 
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$
HUFFMAN