000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

TROPICAL STORM SIMON CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 107.1W AT 02/1500 UTC 
OR 165 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 
12N98W TO 19N104W...WITHIN 180 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE...AND FROM 
21N TO 23N E OF 107W. SIMON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN 
REACHING HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING TO THE WNW. 
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SW MEXICO MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES WHILE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL IMPACT THE COAST 
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 15N98W THEN    
RESUMES FROM 15N111W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 
82W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...FROM 11N TO 
14N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

FRESH S TO SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON ARE 
COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL... 
AS WELL AS NW SWELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE A LARGE 
AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ROUGHLY WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE 
FROM 18N104W TO 09N104W TO 09N117W TO 18N109W TO 08N104W. AS 
SIMON CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WNW...THE AREA OF MONSOONAL FLOW 
WILL SHIFT N-NE AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH FRI NIGHT 
...AND COMBINED SEAS REMOVED FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL 
SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY THEN.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING 
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR NW MEXICO. RESIDUAL N-NW 
SWELL FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS 
SUPPORTING 8 TO 9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 
119W AND 135W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN 24 
HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF 
26N BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
WATERS WHILE TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO AS WELL AS 
JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY FRI NIGHT 
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS.

$$
LEWITSKY