000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC 
SURFACE MAP NEAR 16N103W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TO FORM LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW OR 
NW NEAR 10 KT. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS 
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 12N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 16N103W TO 11N120W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
12N135W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS N OF 06N E OF 81W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. 
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
14N96.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE N OF 12N TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. PART OF THIS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N 
TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRES 
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S 
OF THE LOW NEAR 16N103W ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION S 
OF 15N TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS THROUGH THU 
MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. 

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30-33 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WAVES GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE N WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT 
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 27N125W TO 30N134W. THE FRONT 
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BY THU WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 
134W.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW 
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THU THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO 
BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN GULF WATERS N OF 25N BY LATE THU.

$$
GR