000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED OCT 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
1005 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N102W 
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT IS LOCATED WHERE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE 
VORTICITY IS HIGH FROM TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY ACCUMULATION DURING 
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE LOW BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. 
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW 
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N92W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 
15N102W TO 12N118W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N135W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 15N102W IS 
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 15N TO PRODUCE AN AREA 
OF 7-10 FT SEAS THROUGH THU FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 
118W. 

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWS 30-33 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE N-NW SWELL WHICH 
IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF 30N BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 
CATALINA ISLAND TO 29N124W TO 30N130W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN  
CONTINUE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW 
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THU THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO 
BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN GULF WATERS N OF 25N.

$$
MUNDELL