000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A 1005 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N102W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED 
AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A 
REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY 
ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF LOW  
FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW PARALLELING THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY 
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO 
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N81W TO 1005 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 15N102W TO 13N106W TO 12N134W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
12N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 
07N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 
105W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 117W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL 
FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 
15N102W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH 
LATE THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS 
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. 
HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE 
MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF 
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 132W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS 
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST... 
REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN