000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300251
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0300 
UTC SEP 2014 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS 50 KT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON 
TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

1007 MB LOW PRES CONTINUES BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N97W APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SE OF ACAPULCO 
MEXICO. THIS IS IN THE AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE 
ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC 
TURNING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE 
PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR PUERTO ANGEL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES...CORROBORATED BY A REPORT OF 25 KT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON 
AT NEARBY PUERTO ESCONDIDO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE 
LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS BROAD LOW 
PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW PARALLELING THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 
13N96W TO 11N108W TO 14N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION... 
                                        
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH 
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N 
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE 
THROUGH EARLY TUE.
 
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE 
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS 
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS 
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN