000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     

AT 29/2100...TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 114.4W 
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS 55 KT. STEADY 
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS 
WEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 14N93W TO LOW PRES 
1008 MB NEAR 13N96W TO 11N108W TO 15N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ 
FROM EXTENDS 13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 13N96W TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS IN THE 
AREA WHERE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES HAVE ACCUMULATED OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING THE CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 150 NM N 
AND 240 NM S OF THE LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 
THAT THIS BROAD LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WNW 
PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRES HAS A HIGH CHANCE 
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD CAUSE 
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
                                        
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH 
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N 
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE 
THROUGH EARLY TUE.
 
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE 
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS 
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS 
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN