000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     
RACHEL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 29/1500. AT THIS 
TIME...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W MOVING N OR 360 DEG 
AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. STEADY 
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N 
TO 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME 
NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD BY 
TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 12N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.  
AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION BY LATER THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A 
HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT COULD 
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 12N90W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 13.5N96.5W TO 12N107W 13N112W TO 14N118W TO 13N128W. ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 13N128W TO 12N136W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 
109W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...                                          
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE WATERS FROM 13N TO 21N W OF 125W...AND COMBINE WITH 
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM RACHEL...FROM 14N TO 28N 
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE 
THROUGH EARLY TUE.
 
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE 
OF A LINE FROM 12N102W TO 10N105W TO 10N110W WITH BUILDING SEAS 
OF 8 TO 10 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS 
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 3.4S90W 
TO 12N100W TO 12N118W TO 00N135W BY WED MORNING.  
 
$$
GR