000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 22.8N 117.5W 985 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 29 
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 
80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. 
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THEN DRIFT 
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH RACHEL BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM 
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 100W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT IS 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG 
THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. AS THE WAVE 
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST 
MODELS INDICATE THE AREA COULD SPAWN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A HIGH 
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 3-5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 14N94W TO 12N100W TO 
12N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N115W TO 13N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 13N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND 30 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...                                          
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND COMBINE WITH 
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE RACHEL...HIGHEST FROM 17N TO 27N 
BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE 
THROUGH EARLY TUE.
 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING N-NE ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 11N BETWEEN 100W 
AND 130W BY LATE TUE.
 
$$
MUNDELL