000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
AT 28/0300 UTC...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.5N 117.6W MOVING NNW 
OR 355 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. RACHEL MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY 
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR 
TUESDAY. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST WEST 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 12N97W. 
THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO 97W AND 100W. THE WAVE IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND 
FORM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES S OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE 
CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS 
EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL 
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS BROAD 
AREA OF WEATHER HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N96W TO 10N105W TO 
15N115W TO 12N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W 
AND88W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                          
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE N WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W 
AND 125W. PART OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS INTERACTING WITH SWELL 
GENERATING BY HURRICANE RACHEL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE AREA 
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY TUE.
 
A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA S OF 04N W OF 110W BY MON MORNING...AND S OF A LINE 
FROM 03.4S100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W BY TUE MORNING...WITH 
BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. 
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN