000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
HURRICANE RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 117.0W OR ABOUT 410 NM WSW 
OF SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVING NW OR 335 DEG AT 5 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. RACHEL 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN 12 TO 36 HOURS AND 
START TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER 
WATERS...THEN TURN SHARPLY TO THE SW AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY. SEE THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ 
WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. THE 
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND FORM AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE S OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
ACCOMPANY THIS EVOLVING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N94W TO 11N100W TO 
10N108W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
WAVE IS N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...                                          
RESIDUAL SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS 
LOCATED NW OF A LINE FROM 29N115W TO 20N125W TO 18N140W. HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE OLD FRONT HAS ENHANCED NW WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW 
NEAR YUMA ARIZONA IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0418 UTC 
SHOWED SW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT N OF 29N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
IN THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA S OF 05N W OF 115W THROUGH EARLY MON.
 
$$
MUNDELL