000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280239 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 116.6W OR ABOUT 400 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AT 0300Z MOVING NW OR 340 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE HURRICANE. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AND START TO WEAKEN BY LATE SUN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS. RACHEL WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE SW MON...AND WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 13N. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ALONG ABOUT 105W...THE REMNANTS OF ANOTHER ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND FORM AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE WEATHER WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EVOLVING FEATURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N95W TO 11N100W TO 12N110W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N120W TO 09N125W TO 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONTAL EXTENDING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WERE STILL PRESENT NW OF THE OLD BOUNDARY FROM 20N TO 23N AND W OF 125W. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE DISSIPATED FRONT HAS ENHANCED NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 30N. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THIS AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH MON BUT MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM RACHEL. THE REMNANT LOW OF POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 15N120W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S- SE TO THE SW OF RACHEL...AND BEING INFLUENCED BY THE BROADER MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF RACHEL. AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 15N128W. THE LOW AND TROUGH ALONG WITH ANY ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SUN. A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EQUATOR FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 05N W OF 115W THROUGH LATE SUN AND EARLY MON. $$ CHRISTENSEN