000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 116.1W AT 1500Z MOVING 
NW OR 325 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM 
OF CENTER EXCEPT 45 NM NE QUADRANT...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM 
SW QUADRANT. RACHEL CONTINUES TO SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION 
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK 
AND INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY 
WEAKENING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SUN AS THE STORM MOVES 
INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND OVER COOLER WATERS. SLOW MOVEMENT AND A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR RACHEL OVER THE 
FOLLOWING DAYS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO 
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND EXTENDS 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EPAC ALONG ABOUT 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS 
ACROSS THE EPAC. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ALONG ABOUT 100W...THE 
REMNANTS OF ANOTHER ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEAR AND 
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO...EXTENDING S TO 09N. BOTH OF THESE 
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AND FORM AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ACTIVE WEATHER WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EVOLVING FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF 
WEATHER COULD BE THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC...POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS 
BROAD AREA OF WEATHER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 09N81W TO 13N94W TO 
12N105W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUME FROM 14N115W 
TO 09N126W TO 10N131W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING 
ON 11.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 
NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION... 
A WEAK FRONTAL EXTENDING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS 
DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA 
INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WERE STILL PRESENT NW OF 
THE OLD BOUNDARY FROM 20N TO 25N AND W OF 125W. HIGH PRES 
BUILDING BEHIND THE DISSIPATED FRONT HAS ENHANCED NW WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 30N. THE 
COMBINATION OF ALL THIS AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATING 
THROUGH THE AREA HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8-10 FT 
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY 
FADE THROUGH MON. AS RACHEL MOVES SLOWLY NW DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...LOOK FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS 
WATERS N OF 20N W OF 117W. 

THE REMNANTS OF POLO CONTINUE TO SHIFT S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL 
PORTIONS...LOCATED TO THE SW OF RACHEL...AND BEING INFLUENCED BY 
THE BROADER MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF RACHEL. THESE REMINDS HAS 
DEVELOPED INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH FROM 16N119W TO 13.5N122.5W 
TO 15N126W...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LOOK FOR 
THIS TROUGH AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AND 
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SUN.

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 112W-125W THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS 
THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PULSE OF 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL SHOULD REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS MON. 
 
$$
STRIPLING