000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
9000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 
115.8W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES NW THEN 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUN AS THE STORM MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND 
COOLER WATERS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...BUT 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS AREA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ARE LIKELY S OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC WERE NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH 
A PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE OF 
DAYS AGO. WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO 
SAT MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL 
FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE...AND A WEAK LOW PRES AREA 
MAY LATER FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N95W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 13N92W TO 12N97W TO 
13N103W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W 
AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN NW PORTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 
KT ARE STILL PRESENT NW OF THE OLD BOUNDARY. HIGH PRES BUILDING 
BEHIND THE DISSIPATED FRONT IS ENHANCING NW WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 30N. RACHEL WILL 
ENHANCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N 
W OF 117W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 112W-125W THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS 
THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PULSE OF 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL SHOULD REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS MON. 
 
$$
MUNDELL