000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270259
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 115.3W AT 0300 UTC OR 
ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. RACHEL 
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 994 MB. NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSIST ACROSS RACHEL...AND 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH SAT AS IT MOVES TO THE 
NW...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN STARTING LATE SUN AS THE STORM MOVES 
INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS 
TIME...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THIS AREA AND 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SAT. NO IMPACT ON WINDS IS NOTED 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC WERE NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH A 
PREVIOUS TROPICAL THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE OF DAYS 
AGO. WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO 
SAT MORNING AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS 
WELL FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE...AND A WEAK LOW 
PRES AREA MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N95W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N82W TO 12N88W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 12N93W TO 11N98W TO 13N103W. THE ITCZ REACHES FROM 10N120W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 
NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.      

...DISCUSSION... 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 17 UTC INDICATED THE REMNANTS OF POLO NEAR 
15N122W WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRI WHILE DRIFTING SW AND REMAINING 
WEST OF NEARBY T.S. RACHEL.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS REACHING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 29N115W TO 21N140W APPEARS TO HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE 
STILL ACTIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY. ALTIMETER 
SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOWS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 115W...LIKELY IN NW SWELL. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND 
THE DISSIPATED FRONT WAS ENHANCING NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 30N. RACHEL WILL ENHANCE 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N W OF 
117W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 95W-125W THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH CONDITIONS SHIFTING W 
ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W ON SAT. AN ADDITIONAL 
PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL SHOULD REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS 
MON. 
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN