000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 115.0W AT 2100 UTC  
ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. RACHEL 
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1001 MB. NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSIST ACROSS RACHEL...AND 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 30 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES. THE TROPICAL STORM IS 
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ALSO MOVING UNDER MORE 
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A 
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF RACHEL THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE 
WEAKENING IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N90W TO 11N98W TO 
13N105W. THE ITCZ REACHES FROM 11N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.      

...DISCUSSION... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 17 UTC INDICATED THE 
REMNANTS OF POLO NEAR 15N122W WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SAT 
WHILE DRIFTING SW AND REMAINING WEST OF NEARBY T.S. RACHEL.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS REACHING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 29N115W TO 21N140W APPEARS TO HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE 
STILL ACTIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY. ALTIMETER 
SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOWS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 115W...LIKELY IN NW SWELL. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND 
THE DISSIPATED FRONT WAS ENHANCING NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 30N. RACHEL WILL ENHANCE 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N W OF 
117W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST W OF 120W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY 
MOIST HOWEVER TO THE EAST OF 100W...ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE 
THAT HAD MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS A COUPLE OF DAYS 
AGO. THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE 
HAS BECOME ILL DEFINED AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AND SEEMS 
STATIONARY...A WEAK LOW MAY BE TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO 
INDICATES AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN THIS AREA AS WELL 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 95W-125W THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH CONDITIONS SHIFTING W 
ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W ON SAT. AN ADDITIONAL 
PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL SHOULD REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS 
MON. 
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN