000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 114.4W AT 1500 UTC OR ABOUT 380 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES...SUGGESTING THAT NE WIND SHEAR CONTINUES ACROSS RACHEL. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE ALSO MOVING UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF RACHEL...REACHING JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS SHIFTING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDED JUST INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS OF EL SALVADOR ALONG 88.5W SOUTHWARD TO 10 . SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N97W 1009 MB HAS DEVELOPING ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 10N TO MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WWD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND AREA IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO GRADUALLY MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N76W TO 08.5N82W TO 12.5N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1009 MB TO 12N102W WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED. TROUGH RESUMES S OF T.S. RACHEL FROM 12N116W TO 09.5N124W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING ON TO 07N129W TO 09N133W TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 88W...AND N OF 10N TO MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF POLO ARE OBSERVED AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 15.5N121W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WHILE DRIFTING SW AND REMAINING WEST OF NEARBY T.S. RACHEL. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FROM 28.5N122.5W TO 21.5N140W. AN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL NW OF THE FRONT. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS...SPREADING OUT ACROSS AN AREA N OF 18N W OF 118W BY THIS EVENING. IT WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY T.S. RACHEL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 29N THIS MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S TO 27N BY TONIGHT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA AND T.S. RACHEL WILL ENHANCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N W OF 117W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W-125W THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W ON SAT. AN ADDITIONAL PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL SHOULD REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS MON. $$ STRIPLING