000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 112.9W AT 26/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 340 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
RACHEL IS MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO 
TURN NORTHWEST AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. 
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT BUT SOME 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD 
TO 11 N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.
 
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF A LOW 11N96W ALONG 96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W S OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 09N84W TO 11N88W TO 12N93W 
TO 13N100W...THEN RESUMES SW OF RACHEL FROM 14N116W TO 10N126W. 
ITCZ FROM 10N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 
07N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...INCLUDING GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 12N110W TO 08N116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
THE REMNANTS OF POLO ARE OBSERVED AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 
16N121W WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI WHILE DRIFTING SW WEST OF NEARBY T.S. RACHEL.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 23N140W. AN EARLIER 
ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL NW OF THE 
FRONT. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NORTHERN FORECAST 
WATERS...SPREADING OUT ACROSS AN AREA N OF 18N W OF 118W BY THIS 
EVENING. IT WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY T.S. 
RACHEL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY 
FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 29N THIS 
MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S TO 27N BY TONIGHT. 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA AND T.S. RACHEL 
WILL ENHANCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WATERS N 
OF 20N W OF 117W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 95W-125W THROUGH EARLY SAT...WITH CONDITIONS SHIFTING W 
ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W ON SAT. ADDITIONAL PULSE 
OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL SHOULD REACH SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS MON. 
 

$$
MUNDELL