000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 111.9W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 330 NM...615 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. RACHEL IS MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W/87W EXTENDS S INTO THE EPAC TO 10 N. MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 10N ALONG 96W. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N95W TO 13N104W THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S. RACHEL FROM 11N112W TO 08N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N123W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ARE OBSERVED NEAR 17N120W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY FRI WHILE DRIFTING SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING T.S. RACHEL. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY S OF 27N W OF 135W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 118W BY FRI EVENING. SOME OF THIS NW SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM T.S. RACHEL AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 29N LATE TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING AS FAR S AS 27N BY FRI NIGHT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF OF THE AREA AND T.S. RACHEL WILL ALSO RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 117W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N131W TO 09N133W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD REACHING 140W LATE SAT. FARTHER SOUTH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95-125W THROUGH LATE FRI... WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W ON SAT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS ON MON. $$ GR