000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU SEP 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 110.8W AT 25/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 355 NM...660 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. RACHEL IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 12 KT. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD 
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 11N ALONG 96W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE AXIS MEETS THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 
11N90W TO 11N100W THEN RESUMES SW OF RACHEL FROM 11N112W TO 
07N121W. ITCZ FROM 07N121W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 
87W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...                                              
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ARE OBSERVED NEAR 
17N118W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING SW AHEAD OF 
THE APPROACHING T.S. RACHEL THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 
5 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W. AN EARLIER 
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATED NE WINDS 
OF 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SWELL EVENT 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 
30N116W TO 23N117W TO 17N125W TO 15N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON. SOME 
OF THIS NW SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD SWELL 
BEING GENERATED FROM T.S. RACHEL AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 11N90W. 
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE 
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 

FARTHER SOUTH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95-125W THROUGH LATE FRI... 
WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W 
OF 120W ON SAT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS 
SHOULD REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS ON MON.  

$$
GR