000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU SEP 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL AT 16.3N 109.6W...OR ABOUT 400 MILES S OF  
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 25/1500 
UTC. RACHEL IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 11 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 11N90W. 
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE 
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 11N ALONG 96W WITH SCATTERED   
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES FROM 11N85W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 
11N90W TO 15N101W. THE ITCZ REACHES FROM 10N122W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ARE OBSERVED 
17N119W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THERE IS NO 
DISCERNIBLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES 
INTO DRIER AIR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS 
LOW WEAKENING DRIFTING SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING T.S. RACHEL 
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 5 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 23N140W. AN ASCAT 
SATELLITE PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATED NE WINDS 15 TO 
20 KT. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO OF 8 TO 11 
FT LIKELY IN NW SWELL...OUTPACING THE FRONT BY ABOUT 150 NM. 
WAVEWATCH III INDICATES THE NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
REACH FROM THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE NEAR 30N TO 
20N140W BY TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DECAY. SOME OF THIS NW SWELL 
WILL INTERACT WITH THE SHORTER PERIOD SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM 
T.S. RACHEL AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF CONFUSED SEAS FROM ROUGHLY 23N TO 
27N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. 

FARTHER SOUTH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95-125W THROUGH SAT...WITH 
THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 
120W ON SUN...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT ON MON. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN