000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RACHEL AT 16.0N 108.6W...OR ABOUT 360 MILES SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 485 MILES S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 25/0900 UTC. RACHEL IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 11 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 27N119W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN 108124W. ASSOCIATED NE WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SHEAR RACHEL WITH THE CENTER ALONG THE THE NE EDGE OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES... A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 10N89W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 11N ALONG 95W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND WESTERN PANAMA FROM 08N78W TO THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BORDER AT 09N84W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 10N89W...THEN TURNS ABRUPTLY NW THROUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W TO 17N100W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES W OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL NEAR 16N115W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 10N120W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO 08N125W...THEN TURNS W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO FROM 86- 105W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO THE N OF 02N E OF 79W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N88W TO 11N98W TO 08N111W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ARE STILL EVIDENT...AND ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 18N117W. THE GRADIENT W OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONLY N WINDS AT 10-15 KT...WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW AND WEAKEN TO A OPEN TROUGH TO THE SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL LATE FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 24N140W. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS S OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SE SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT NW OF LINE FROM 30N120W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT FROM 30N117W TO 23N140W. SEAS OF 6-9 FT IN MIXING LONG PERIOD NW AND SE SWELL WILL COVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF LINE FROM 30N116W TO 16N140W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON SAT AND SUN. BY THEN SE SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL WILL BE BE FELT ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE S OF 27N. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 95-125W THROUGH SAT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING W ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N W OF 120W ON SUN...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT ON MON. $$ NELSON