000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250255
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU SEP 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM 
RACHEL AT 25/0300 UTC. AT THIS TIME...RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 
15.3N 107.4W OR ABOUT 280 NM...525 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO 
MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. RACHEL IS THE 17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 
2014 TROPICAL SEASON. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N87W 1009 
MB TO 13N100W THEN CONTINUES SW OF T.S. RACHEL FROM 11N108W TO 
08N120W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
05N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...AND FROM 09N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 
07N W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 
30N131W TO 25N140W WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS 
BEHIND IT. LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THE LARGE AND POWERFUL 
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC IS RAISING SEAS TO 10 FT  
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON THU REACHING A POSITION FROM FROM 
30N122W TO 25N130W TO 22N140W...AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. BUILDING 
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE 
NORTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TO THE N OF 30N LATE THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS 
SPREADING AS FAR S AS 27N BY LATE FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 
FT IN MIXING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
NW OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 20N120W TO 18N130W TO 14N140W BY 
FRI EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.  

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO ARE ANALYZED AS A 
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 19N117W. WINDS REMAIN 15-20 KT WITHIN 
ABOUT 150 NM NW OF THE CENTER PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...WITH 
SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW TO A POSITION 
NEAR 17N118W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY 
RACHEL THEREAFTER.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS NEAR 15N138W AND A 1011 MB LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED ON THE 
0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 
12 HOURS BUT THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
WESTWARD.
 
$$
GR