000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE SEP 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 14N101W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 99W-101W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO WITH ITS 
ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 12N 
BETWEEN 100-120W AND PROVIDING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS FOR THIS SURFACE LOW TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...WITH A 
HIGH POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO LOW PRES 14N101W 1008 MB TO 8N110W 
TO 6N120W. ITCZ FROM 6N120W TO 6N133W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N135W 
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
5N-8N BETWEEN 79W-84W AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 86W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...   

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 24N140W. A LARGE AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 125W. IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS A COUPLE OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
9N136W AND ANOTHER NEAR 7N129W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF 115W.

THE REMNANTS OF POLO IS A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 22N115W. WINDS ARE 
LIGHT AROUND THE LOW. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
 
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
29N129W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 13N120W. THIS RIDGE IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 
120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA LATE WED AND EXTEND FROM 32N129W TO 26N140W AND FROM 
32N122W TO 25N140W THU. LARGE SWELLS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL 
MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$
DGS