000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE SEP 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N99W AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS 
TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 14N954W TO 1008 MB LOW 
NEAR 14N99W ALONG 9N106W 6N126W TO 4N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
13N125W ALONG 11N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 85W-87W INCLUDING COAST OF 
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 92W-94W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 102W-109W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
105W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE REMNANTS OF POLO IS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 22N115W. STRONG WINDS 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN SURROUNDING THE LOW AND ARE EXPECTED 
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS THROUGH 32N128W TO 24N140W SUPPORTING A 
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUE WITH SEAS INCREASING BY EARLY 
WED. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N107W AND 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 120W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THIS UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER 
TROUGH ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER MEXICO AND S OF 
MEXICO IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION  
FROM 17N-20N E OF 106W TO OVER MEXICO AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-92W. 
 
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 25N145W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 25N140W TO BEYOND 
32N126W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$
PAW