000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222045
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
12N98W OR ABOUT 260 NM S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND IS SHOWING 
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W ALONG 14N94W TO A 1008 MB LOW 
NEAR 12N98W THEN ALONG 9N106W TO 6N120W THEN RESUMES NEAR 
17N115W TO 12N122W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
ALONG COAST OF COSTA RICA BETWEEN 83W AND 86W AND WITHIN 120 NM 
S AND 90 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE REMNANTS OF POLO IS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 22N115W. STRONG WINDS 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT REMAIN SURROUNDING THE LOW AND ARE EXPECTED 
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS THROUGH 32N129W TO 24N140W SUPPORTING A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N136W TO 27N140W. A SECOND RE-
ENFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUE WITH SEAS 
INCREASING BY EARLY WED. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N108W COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 116W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE 
AIR ALOFT IS W OF THIS UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE.  
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.  

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N131W 
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 22N122W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$
PAW