000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212045
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 112.1W AT 21/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 125 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS 45 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N 
BETWEEN 113W-116W. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO THAT 
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE 
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE THE 
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 
KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N94W AND IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
94W-97W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FRONT DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N94W 
TO 10N103W ALONG 7N114W TO 10N131W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 83W-89W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 
96W-103W...AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 106W-
108W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA W OF 
TROPICAL STORM POLO N OF 26N W OF 115W AND FROM 13N-26N W OF 120W.

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N136W WITH SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING TO 20N123W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
EARLY MON THEN DISSIPATE LATE MON/EARLY TUE.

$$
PAW