000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W OR ABOUT 150  
MILES SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT AT 
1500 UTC SEP 20. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 
1000 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 

STRONG NE WIND SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE CENTER TO THE E OF 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM 
OVER W SEMICIRCLE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES 
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND 
MUD SLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE 
PACIFIC  COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-24N...INCLUDING BOTH MAINLAND 
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE GENERATION OF LIFE 
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC 
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N99W THEN RESUMES AT 16N120W TO 
12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
5N-11N BETWEEN 80W-111W.           


...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION  
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 30N134W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVLE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
13N133W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 117W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO 
15N128W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS 
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE 
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN 
120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON 
SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT.

$$
DGS