000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W OR ABOUT 150 MILES 
SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 285 MILES SSE OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 1500 UTC SEP 
19. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS 
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION 
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS 
EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 55 KT 
WITH GUSTS 55 KT.

NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO POLO IS FROM 15N-20N 
BETWEEN 105W-111W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND 
MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS 
FROM THE STORM ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY 
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N77W TO 10N90W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N120W TO 
12N131W. ITCZ FROM 12N131W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 88W-99W AND IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AXIS 
FROM 32N125W TO 23N135W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE 
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 117W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N108W. 
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYLONE IS 
ALLOWING OUTFLOW FOR TROPICAL STORM POLO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W TO 
20N122W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS 
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE 
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN 
120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON 
SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$ 
DGS