000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.1W OR ABOUT 140 MILES SW 
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 330 MILES SE OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC SEP 19. THE MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 315 
DEG AT 07 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT 
SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT.

CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 
NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WELL TO THE N OF CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF 
22.5N107W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND MAY RESULT IN 
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY 
TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE 
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC 
AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
BETWEEN 09-10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W... 
THEN DIPS SW TO 09N92W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N98W...THEN W TO 
11N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW TO 13N132W...THEN W TO BEYOND 13N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N82W TO 09N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
NOTED S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF 08.5N138W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO 
25N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS 
THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 
28N137W ON SAT...WITH THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SE TO NEAR 
27N135W ON SAT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$ 
NELSON